2015-05-20 10:44:23 来源： AsiaOTT AsiaOTT
The first quarter earnings season is coming to a close, so now it's time to see how the nation's top wireless carriers stacked up against each other in terms of key metrics.
As you can see, T-Mobile was the only one of the big four carriers that added phone subscribers, while the other three all lost phone subscribers. T-Mobile's growth was slightly greater than the combined losses of the other three, in part because there is still a tiny bit of growth in the market.
Sprint, Verizon, and AT&T have had different responses to these trends, with both AT&T and Verizon suggesting they won't pursue subscribers who are motivated only by price, while Sprint is simply trying to stem losses wherever it can, including competing on price, while attempting to steal some subscribers back. Meanwhile, T-Mobile's message of improving network performance at a compelling price seems to be working well.
What's interesting, though, is that postpaid phones are a smaller and smaller source of growth over time. Both postpaid tablets and "Connected Devices" are driving far more growth for the carriers than postpaid phones are at this point:
That's not to say there's no growth for individual carriers in phones--T-Mobile is clearly finding growth there by stealing subscribers from competitors--but for the market overall, phones continue to grow only slowly at this point, while the real growth opportunities are elsewhere. To be sure, those new growth areas have far lower ARPUs than smartphones do, but tablets represent a useful additional revenue opportunity for carriers, and connected devices will likely end up being largest of all.
Tablets have been particularly good for Verizon, which has had its own Ellipsis tablet as a major driver of sales, and just this week AT&T announced its plans to start selling its AT&T-branded Trek tablet for similar reasons. AT&T continues to be the leader in Connected Devices, and its deals with various carmakers are a big driver of connected car subscribers in particular.
上面的两根线已经惊人地相近，并且暗示了T-Mobile用户将极有可能在六个月后反超Sprint，但或许仍然是一个比较大的迈步，目前T-Mobile拥有足够多的预付费用户，而Sprint相比而言拥有的是更多后付费的用户。当然或许这些都并不算重要，双方均仍小规模落后于AT&T以及Verizon。相比之下，目前T-Mobile做得比较好的，是他们会在一些小规模的交易中补偿一些负面的影响，这一点尤其注重在营销策略上，而与之相对的是，Sprint已经很久没有在社交媒体以及其他渠道中进行营销的推动。 Those two lines are getting awfully close at this point, and it's very likely T-Mobile will finally cross the line about six months later than Legere predicted. But this is a largely symbolic move: T-Mobile is already the larger prepaid carrier, and Sprint is larger in postpaid. Does either metric actually matter? What really matters is that both are still massively sub-scale behind AT&T and Verizon. Until now T-Mobile has done a better job of offsetting some of the negative effects of its smaller scale, especially on the marketing front. Sprint has been less effective so far in leveraging social media and other channels to boost its marketing reach.
All the carriers have now finally fully embraced installment billing models for smartphones, even though Verizon was late to the party, and this model promises to take over the market pretty completely in the next year or two. However, Sprint has been unique in that it's offered not just classic installment billing in the same way as the other carriers, but also a leasing option over the last few months. What's interesting is just how popular this model has become among Sprint's subscribers:
As you can see, though EIP (equipment installment plans) were very popular when they first launched, they've dropped significantly as Sprint has introduced leasing across multiple high-end devices, and leasing now dominates the overall monthly-payment model at Sprint, from nothing in Q2 2014 and a very small number in Q3 2014. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw other carriers adopting the leasing model as a result.
当 iPhone 正在智能手机市场叱咤风云的时候，苹果已经有了新目标：自己当电信运营商。